From Science to Strategy: Miami's Climate Resilience in 2026
- Aaron DeMayo
- 19 hours ago
- 7 min read
As the Chair of the City of Miami Climate Resilience Committee for 2026, I recognize that effective adaptation requires a balance of sound public policy and informed physical design. Since 2024, I have had the privilege of serving in this role, building a continuous foundation of knowledge where each year of research informs the next — grounded in presentations from leading experts across climate science, sea level rise, and attribution research.
The data we review as a committee increasingly demands that we think beyond incremental solutions. The science points toward fundamental changes in how we build, plan, and invest — and those changes are coming whether we are prepared for them or not.
This work sits at the core of what we do at Future Vision Studios, where understanding a city's climate trajectory is inseparable from designing its future.
A Legacy of Expertise
Since 2024, I have had the privilege of serving as the Chair of the City of Miami Climate Resilience Committee. Our strategy is to build a continuous foundation of knowledge where each year of research informs the next. We are building on a rigorous foundation laid by previous presentations from top-tier experts during my first two years in this role.
March 4th, 2024: Brian McNoldy
Senior Research Associate, Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
On March 4, 2024, Brian McNoldy from the University of Miami Rosenstiel School provided a briefing on the climate challenges specifically affecting South Florida. He presented evidence that our local sea level is rising at roughly twice the global average rate. This acceleration is closely linked to changes in the Florida Current, which can cause water to pile up along the East Coast. Brian also shared startling global context: Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that global temperatures in 2023 likely exceeded those of any period in at least the last 100,000 years — a finding with profound consequences, as McNoldy noted, for both the Paris Agreement and the extreme heat season South Florida is already experiencing. His presentation underscored the fact that our extreme heat season is expanding as cooler morning lows continue to disappear.
Local Tidal and Sea Level Trends
The data from Brian's presentation provides a clear look at our local reality. Observations at Virginia Key from 1994 to 2023 show a sea level rise trend of approximately 0.26 inches per year. This trend has led to a significant increase in the number of hours per day that water levels remain above the mean high tide. These nuisance flooding events are no longer rare occurrences. They are becoming a persistent challenge for our coastal infrastructure.
Understanding these cycles is essential for seasonal preparation. Brian shared tide predictions for 2024 that highlighted the "King Tide" season, which typically peaks in mid-October. For instance, the highest predicted tide in 2024 was on October 18. These specific dates allow residents and city officials to prepare for peak flooding windows well in advance.
One of the most critical elements of this 2024 briefing was the Unified Sea Level Rise Projection. This projection is a collaborative product of the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact, which represents a joint commitment between Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe, and Palm Beach counties to coordinate regional planning. The data serves as a standardized tool that allows local governments to assess risk and design infrastructure based on shared scientific expectations. While the projection includes multiple scenarios, the NOAA Intermediate High curve is a primary reference for our 50-year planning horizon. This curve indicates that Miami could see approximately 3 feet of sea-level rise within the next 50 years. This represents a staggering shift that means our city will not function the same way it does today. For architects, planners, policy makers, and elected officials, this 3-foot mark is the new baseline for resilient planning. It is also a critical data point for the voters and residents who live here.
July 7th, 2025: Climate Central
On July 7, 2025, Abbie Veitch, Media Associate, and Shel Winkley, Meteorologist from Climate Central, introduced the committee to the field of Attribution Science and the Climate Shift Index (CSI). Attribution science is a technical method that allows researchers to determine how much human-caused climate change has influenced a specific weather event. This is calculated by comparing our current world with high levels of greenhouse gases to a "counterfactual" world where humans never significantly altered the atmosphere.
To make this data actionable for the public, Climate Central developed the Climate Shift Index (CSI). This scale ranges from -5 to 5 to show the daily influence of climate change on local temperatures. A CSI of 1 indicates a 1.5x more likely detectable shift. A CSI of 3 is considered "Very Strong" and means those conditions were made three times more likely. A CSI of 5 is "Exceptional" and indicates an event made at least five times more likely by warming.
The Temperature Shift
The presentation detailed how these shifts affect the frequency of extreme heat. By shifting the "bell curve" of global temperatures, events that were once considered rare outliers are becoming common occurrences. The data illustrated this shift in South Florida. It showed a significant increase in the frequency of days where temperatures reached extreme levels.
Ocean Energy and Hurricane Milton
The presentation also directly linked record-breaking Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)to the intensification of modern storms. Page 11 of the presentation focused on Hurricane Milton. It showed how unprecedented ocean heat provided the energy required for the storm to undergo rapid and extreme intensification.
The Global Climate Shift: Quantifying the Red Flags of March 2026
The data from the past month illustrates an accelerating shift in both global and national weather patterns. According to the March 2026 analysis from Climate Central, the United States experienced its warmest March on record. As highlighted by Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) using ERA-5 data, the month of March in the lower 48 states has warmed by a remarkable 7.22°F since 1940. This represents an accelerating warming rate of roughly 0.83°F per decade. If this pace continues, future generations could face a March that is nearly 9°F warmer than the historical average by the end of the century.
This warming is not consistently distributed evenly. The Western United States recently endured a record-shattering heatwave. These conditions were effectively impossible in a world without human-caused warming.
What This Means for Miami
While the national and western trends are stark, the local data for Miami is equally telling. Since 1970, March temperatures in our city have increased by 2.9°F. In March 2026, we experienced an average temperature of 75.0°F, which is 1.9°F above the 1991-2020 normal baseline. This heat was accompanied by significant rainfall. We recorded 4.4 inches of precipitation, representing 178% of the normal amount for the month. This combination of rising heat and increased moisture is a direct reflection of the shifting atmospheric conditions we are tracking in South Florida.
This Monday: From Science to ResilieNomics
Our upcoming meeting on Monday, April 6, connects this physical science to the economic and policy strategies required for Miami to thrive.
1. The Science: Dean Ben Kirtman, Dean Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science
Dean Kirtman will brief the committee on "From Global Climate Forcing to Florida’s Weather Extremes." He will specifically address persistent global trends, regional implications, modeling and methodological challengs, and ongoing efforts. His presentation will address evidence of a possible climate system shift that emerged in 2023 and the potential contribution of the Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai eruption to recent anomalies. He will also highlight why hyper-local, high-resolution information is essential for managing the signs of global change that are increasingly visible across Florida. This technical foundation is critical for improving our local projections of heat and rainfall extremes.
2. The Strategy: Aris Papadopoulos, FIU Distinguished Expert in Resilience; Founding Chair, Resilience Action Fund
Aris Papadopoulos will present the "ResilieNomics Strategy for Miami." This framework moves us toward actionable policy by leveraging market forces like insurance pricing and the designation of "Resilience Zones." We will discuss how to incentivize transit-oriented developments that are designed to withstand these escalating shifts.
Join the Conversation
The data presented in this post represents more than statistics — it describes the city our children will inherit. Public participation is vital to our advisory work, and your voice matters in shaping how Miami responds. We invite you to join us Monday as we move from science to strategy.
Date: Monday, April 6, 2026
Time: 6:00 PM
Location: Miami City Hall (In person) or via the City of Miami Live Stream.
We welcome public comments at both the beginning and the end of the meeting. You may also submit your comments online through the link provided below.
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